rdf-syntax-grammar
mods:
  schema location: http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
  title info:
    title: Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections
    sub title: A Risk Assessment Approach Coupling Epidemiologic and Geostatistical Measures
  name:
    name part: Schröder, Winfried.
    role:
      role term: creator
    role:
      role term: author.
  name:
    name part: Schmidt, Gunther.
    role:
      role term: author.
  name:
    name part: SpringerLink (Online service)
  type of resource: text
  origin info:
    place:
      place term: gw
    date issued: 2014
    issuance: monographic
  language:
    language term: eng
  physical description:
    form: electronic
    form: electronic resource
    reformatting quality: access
    form: remote
    extent: VIII, 58 p. 18 illus., 15 illus. in color. online resource.
  abstract: One of the most troubling and dangerous effects of climate warming is the potential for new outbreaks of vector-borne diseases – in humans as well as livestock – that had previously been eradicated, or at least effectively suppressed. One such threat is malaria. Although it is often believed to be restricted to the tropics and developing countries, climate change could bring malaria back to Europe, especially into countries where it was present until the middle of the last century, such as Germany, where Tertian malaria or vivax malaria, a rather severe form of malaria, was prevalent in north-western parts of the country until the 1950s, when it was eradicated. The vector itself, the mosquito (Anopheles atroparvus), is still present, and infected people from malarial regions could introduce a new onset of malaria. This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproductive and development cycles are accelerated. The resulting maps show that the seasonal transmission gate may be extended from an average of 3 months under present temperature conditions to up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080. Although models described in this book do not integrate such other driving factors as the distribution of water bodies serving as breeding habitats, or population density, the findings illuminated here could prove use…
  table of contents: 1. Background and Goals -- 2. Case Study 1: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Lower Saxony -- 3. Case Study 2: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Germany -- 4. Conclusions and Outlook.
  note: by Winfried Schröder, Gunther Schmidt.
  subject:
    topic: Environment
  subject:
    topic: Climate change
  subject:
    topic: Parasitology
  subject:
    topic: Geobiology
  subject:
    topic: Epidemiology
  subject:
    topic: Environment
  subject:
    topic: Climate Change
  subject:
    topic: Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
  subject:
    topic: Parasitology
  subject:
    topic: Epidemiology
  subject:
    topic: Biogeosciences
  classification: QC902.8-903.2
  classification: 577.27
  related item:
    title info:
      title: Springer eBooks
  related item:
    title info:
      title: SpringerBriefs in Environmental Science
  identifier: 9783319038230
  identifier: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0
  record info:
    record creation date: 131214
    record change date: 20151204182103.0
    record identifier: 978-3-319-03823-0