rdf-syntax-grammar
mods:
  schema location: http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-2.xsd
  title info:
    title: Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks
    sub title: The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management
  name:
    name part: Taylor, Craig E.
    role:
      role term: creator
    role:
      role term: author.
  name:
    name part: SpringerLink (Online service)
  type of resource: text
  origin info:
    place:
      place term: gw
    date issued: 2015
    edition: 1st ed. 2015.
    issuance: monographic
  language:
    language term: eng
  physical description:
    form: electronic
    form: electronic resource
    reformatting quality: access
    form: remote
    extent: XXI, 164 p. 21 illus., 9 illus. in color. online resource.
  abstract: This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces “robust simulation” which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena. .
  table of contents: Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward -- The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics -- The Frequency Theory of Probability -- Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory -- More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble -- Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence -- Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples -- Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures -- Conclusions and Queries.
  note: by Craig E. Taylor.
  subject:
    topic: Earth sciences
  subject:
    topic: Natural disasters
  subject:
    topic: Computer simulation
  subject:
    topic: System theory
  subject:
    topic: Earth Sciences
  subject:
    topic: Natural Hazards
  subject:
    topic: Simulation and Modeling
  subject:
    topic: Complex Systems
  classification: GB5000-5030
  classification: 551
  related item:
    title info:
      title: Springer eBooks
  identifier: 9783319194134
  identifier: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19413-4
  record info:
    record creation date: 151111
    record change date: 20151112021216.0
    record identifier: 978-3-319-19413-4