Principles of Forecasting A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners /

• Συγγραφή απο Οργανισμό/Αρχή: SpringerLink (Online service)
• Άλλοι συγγραφείς: Armstrong, J. Scott (Επιμελητής έκδοσης)
• Μορφή: Ηλεκτρονική πηγή Ηλ. βιβλίο
• Γλώσσα: English
• Έκδοση: Boston, MA : Springer US : Imprint: Springer, 2001.
• Σειρά: International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 30
• Θέματα: Business.; Marketing.; Management.; Operations research.; Decision making.; Business and Management.; Operation Research/Decision Theory.

Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this c...

Πίνακας περιεχομένων:

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Role Playing
• Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions
• 3. Intentions
• Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data
• 4. Expert Opinions
• Improving Judgment in Forecasting
• Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts
• Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation
• Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique
• 5. Conjoint Analysis
• Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis
• 6. Judgmental Bootstrapping
• Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting
• 7. Analogies
• Forecasting Analogous Time Series
• 8. Extrapolation
• Extrapolation of Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data
• Neural Networks For Time-Series Forecasting
• 9. Rule-Based Forecasting
• Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation
• 10. Expert Systems
• Expert Systems for Forecasting
• 11. Econometric Methods
• Econometric Forecasting
• 12. Selecting Methods
• Selecting Forecasting Methods
• 13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining
• Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge
• Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts
• Combining Forecasts
• 14. Evaluating Methods
• Evaluating Forecasting Methods
• 15. Assessing Uncertainly
• Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting
• Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting
• 16. Gaining Acceptance
• Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts
• 17. Monitoring Forecasts
• Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity
• 18. Applications of Principles
• Population Forecasting
• Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation
• Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share
• Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods
• 19. Diffusion of Principles
• Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books
• Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software
• 20. Summary
• Standards and Practices for Forecasting
• Forecasting Standards Checklist
• External Reviewers
• About the Authors
• The Forecasting Dictionary
• Author Index.