Estimating Impact A Handbook of Computational Methods and Models for Anticipating Economic, Social, Political and Security Effects in International Interventions /

• Συγγραφή απο Οργανισμό/Αρχή: SpringerLink (Online service)
• Άλλοι συγγραφείς: Kott, Alexander (Επιμελητής έκδοσης), Citrenbaum, Gary (Επιμελητής έκδοσης)
• Μορφή: Ηλεκτρονική πηγή Ηλ. βιβλίο
• Γλώσσα: English
• Έκδοση: Boston, MA : Springer US : Imprint: Springer, 2010.
• Θέματα: Computer science.; Operations research.; Decision making.; Political science.; Application software.; Game theory.; Applied mathematics.; Engineering mathematics.; Economic theory.; Computer Science.; Computer Appl. in Social and Behavioral Sciences.; Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences.; Political Science.; Operation Research/Decision Theory.; Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods.; Appl.Mathematics/Computational Methods of Engineering.

 International interventions are among the most controversial and complex of human endeavors. In today's smaller, flatter, and interdependent world, interventions of all sorts - economic sanctions or aid, natural-disaster relief, various diplomatic or civil-military engagements—are likely to persist and to become yet more complex and difficult. The last decade has seen an explosive growth of research on methods and tools, particularly computational tools, for estimating effects of interventions. In ESTIMATING IMPACT Alexander Kott and Gary Citrenbaum, with a stellar group of contributors, offer readers a broad and practical introduction to computational approaches for anticipating effects of interventions. International interventions and estimating effects of such interventions on human, economic, social, and political variables are of critical importance to business analysts and planners as well as to government policy planners and non-governmental humanitarian organizations. In current practice, intervention-related decisions, planning, and effects estimating rely on historical analogies, on qualitative theories, on expert opinions, experience, and intuition. ESTIMATING IMPACT argues for a broader, more balanced view. It describes how emerging computational techniques can help analysts, planners, and decision-makers in a number of ways: estimating the range of likely future conditions, highlighting unwarranted assumptions, generating alternative approaches, elucidating details and uncovering the potential for unanticipated effects. While the field is still very young, the trend is unmistakable: there is a rising recognition that quantitative, computational methods are indispensable elements—although by no means panaceas —for making prudent decisions regarding international interventions. 

 Introduction: Judgment and Computation -- Emerging Techniques and Tools -- Politics and Power -- Economics and Markets -- Media and Influence -- Governance and Society -- Groups and Violence -- Insurgency and Security -- Crime and Corruption -- Visualization and Comprehension -- Verification and Validation -- Conclusions: Anticipation and Action.