Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management /

• Κύριος συγγραφέας: Taylor, Craig E. (Συγγραφέας)
• Συγγραφή απο Οργανισμό/Αρχή: SpringerLink (Online service)
• Μορφή: Ηλεκτρονική πηγή Ηλ. βιβλίο
• Γλώσσα: English
• Έκδοση: Cham : Springer International Publishing : Imprint: Springer, 2015.
• Έκδοση: 1st ed. 2015.
• Θέματα: Earth sciences.; Natural disasters.; Computer simulation.; System theory.; Earth Sciences.; Natural Hazards.; Simulation and Modeling.; Complex Systems.

This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a “paradigm shift” that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies.  “Robust simulation” is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of po...

Πίνακας περιεχομένων:

• Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward
• The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics
• The Frequency Theory of Probability
• Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory
• More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble
• Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence
• Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples
• Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures
• Conclusions and Queries.