Long-Run Growth Forecasting

This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap betwee...

Πλήρης περιγραφή

Λεπτομέρειες βιβλιογραφικής εγγραφής
Κύριος συγγραφέας: Bergheim, Stefan (Συγγραφέας)
Συγγραφή απο Οργανισμό/Αρχή: SpringerLink (Online service)
Μορφή: Ηλεκτρονική πηγή Ηλ. βιβλίο
Γλώσσα:English
Έκδοση: Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2008.
Θέματα:
Διαθέσιμο Online:Full Text via HEAL-Link
LEADER 03130nam a22004695i 4500
001 978-3-540-77680-2
003 DE-He213
005 20151204183041.0
007 cr nn 008mamaa
008 100301s2008 gw | s |||| 0|eng d
020 |a 9783540776802  |9 978-3-540-77680-2 
024 7 |a 10.1007/978-3-540-77680-2  |2 doi 
040 |d GrThAP 
050 4 |a HB172.5 
072 7 |a KCB  |2 bicssc 
072 7 |a KCBM  |2 bicssc 
072 7 |a BUS039000  |2 bisacsh 
072 7 |a BUS045000  |2 bisacsh 
082 0 4 |a 339  |2 23 
100 1 |a Bergheim, Stefan.  |e author. 
245 1 0 |a Long-Run Growth Forecasting  |h [electronic resource] /  |c by Stefan Bergheim. 
264 1 |a Berlin, Heidelberg :  |b Springer Berlin Heidelberg,  |c 2008. 
300 |a XV, 189 p.  |b online resource. 
336 |a text  |b txt  |2 rdacontent 
337 |a computer  |b c  |2 rdamedia 
338 |a online resource  |b cr  |2 rdacarrier 
347 |a text file  |b PDF  |2 rda 
505 0 |a The importance of long-run growth analysis -- Assessment of growth theories -- The dependent variable: GDP growth -- Labor input -- Physical capital -- Human capital -- Openness -- Spatial linkages -- Other determinants of GDP -- The theory of forecasting -- The evolution of growth empirics -- Estimation results -- Forecast competitions and 2006-2020 forecasts -- Conclusion and outlook. 
520 |a This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap between the high demand for such models by commercial banks, international organizations, central banks and governments on the one hand and the limited supply on the other hand. Frequent forecast failures in the past (e.g. Japan 1990, Asia 1997) and the heavy economic losses they produced motivated the work. The book assesses the large number of different theories of economic growth, the drivers of economic growth, the available datasets and the empirical methods on offer. A preference is shown for evolutionary models and an augmented Kaldor model. The book uses non-stationary panel techniques to find pair-wise cointegration among GDP per capita and its main correlates such as physical capital, human capital and openness. GDP forecasts for the years 2006 to 2020 for 40 countries are derived in a transparent way. The author works for a commercial bank and has been the lead researcher in the bank's project called "Global Growth Centres 2020". 
650 0 |a Macroeconomics. 
650 0 |a Development economics. 
650 0 |a Economic growth. 
650 1 4 |a Economics. 
650 2 4 |a Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. 
650 2 4 |a Economic Growth. 
650 2 4 |a Development Economics. 
710 2 |a SpringerLink (Online service) 
773 0 |t Springer eBooks 
776 0 8 |i Printed edition:  |z 9783540776796 
856 4 0 |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77680-2  |z Full Text via HEAL-Link 
912 |a ZDB-2-SBE 
950 |a Business and Economics (Springer-11643)