Prediction or Prophecy? The Boundaries of Economic Foreknowledge and Their Socio-Political Consequences /
Economic policy making matters to all of us. Economists are supposed to provide the necessary knowledge which enables policy makers to take effective economic policy decisions. Gregor Betz explores the following questions: " Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economi...
| Κύριος συγγραφέας: | |
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| Συγγραφή απο Οργανισμό/Αρχή: | |
| Μορφή: | Ηλεκτρονική πηγή Ηλ. βιβλίο |
| Γλώσσα: | English |
| Έκδοση: |
Wiesbaden :
DUV,
2006.
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| Θέματα: | |
| Διαθέσιμο Online: | Full Text via HEAL-Link |
Πίνακας περιεχομένων:
- Assessing the predictive limits of economics
- Recent performance of economic forecasts
- A historical perspective on economic forecast performance
- Forecast performance in natural sciences
- Understanding the predictive limits of economics
- Predictability of complex systems
- The quality of data
- Expectations and reflexiveness
- Sensitive dependence on initial conditions
- Experiment and simulation
- Unrealistic-assumption explanations
- Living with the predictive limits of economics
- Consequences for traditional decision making
- Rational decision making under uncertainty and ignorance
- Post-normal science.
