Forecasting International Migration in Europe: A Bayesian View

• Main Author: Bijak, Jakub (Author)
• Corporate Author: SpringerLink (Online service)
• Format: Electronic eBook
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands : Imprint: Springer, 2011.
• Series: The Springer Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, 24
• Subjects: Social sciences.; Statistics.; Emigration and immigration.; Demography.; Social Sciences.; Migration.; Statistical Theory and Methods.

International migration is becoming an increasingly important element of contemporary demographic dynamics and yet, due to its high volatility, it remains the most unpredictable element of population change. In Europe, population forecasting is especially difficult because good-quality data on migra...

Table of Contents:

• List of tables and figures
• Part I. Introduction
• Part II. Explaining and forecasting migration
• Part III. Examples of Bayesian migration predictions
• Part IV. Perspectives of forecast makers and users
• Part V. Conclusion
• Acknowledgements
• References
• Subject Index
• Index of Names
• Annex A. Data sources and the preparatory work
• Annex B. WinBUGS code used in the presented Bayesian forecasts
• Annex C. Bayesian forecasts of selected migration flows in Europe.