Decision-making and action /

• Κύριος συγγραφέας: Pomerol, Jean-Charles
• Μορφή: Ηλ. βιβλίο
• Γλώσσα: English
• Έκδοση: London : ISTE ; 2012.; Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2012.
• Σειρά: ISTE.
• Θέματα: Statistical decision.; Decision making.; MATHEMATICS > Probability & Statistics > Bayesian Analysis.; Electronic books.

 "This book provides a bridge between the latest results in artificial intelligence, neurobiology, psychology and decision-making for action. What is the role of intuition or emotion? What are the main psychological biases of which we must be wary? How can we avoid being manipulated? What is the proper use of planning? How can we remain rational even if one is not an expert in probabilities? Perhaps more importantly for managers, how does one go from decision to action? So many questions fundamental to the practice of decision-making are addressed. This book dissects all issues that arise almost daily for decision-makers, at least for major decisions. Drawing on numerous examples, this book answers, in plain language and imagery, all your questions. The final chapter takes the form of a brief reminder - everything you have to remember to be a good decision-maker."--Publisher's website. 

 Cover; Decision-Making and Action; Title Page; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; Introduction; Chapter 1. What is a Decision, or What Does Decision Theory Have to Teach Us?; 1.1. Actions and events; 1.2. Probabilities; 1.3. Expected utility; 1.4. Subjective probabilities and rationality of the decision; 1.5. Caveats and recommendations; 1.5.1. Distinction between actions and events; 1.5.2. Distinction between decisions and results; 1.5.3. Expectancy-based reasoning; 1.5.4. Identification of all the probabilities and all the possible events.; Chapter 2. Scenarios and Conditional Probabilities.